Opinion polls for the Bavaria state election
What do the polls say about the Bavaria state election?
The poll average puts CSU first at 36.5%.
- Polls to
What do the polls say?
As of , the average of the newest poll from each of 2 pollsters for the Bavaria state election puts CSU at 36.5%, AfD at 21.5% and Grüne at 15.0%. This page lists 41 polls published after the election of , each with its pollster and fieldwork dates.
- Germany
- Bayerischer Landtag
- 41 polls since the last election
- Last election
- Next: Germany 2028 Bavaria state election
The average of the newest poll from each of 2 pollsters, published 19 October 2026 to 20 October 2026.
- CSU 36.5% Range 36.0 to 37.0
- AfD 21.5% Range 21.0 to 22.0
- Grüne 15.0% Range 15.0 to 15.0
- Freie Wähler 9.5% Range 9.0 to 10.0
- SPD 7.0% Range 6.0 to 8.0
- Linke 3.5% Range 3.0 to 4.0
- FDP 2.0% Range 2.0 to 2.0
- Other parties 6.0% Range 5.0 to 7.0
- Lowest to highest poll
- Average
| Party | % | ± points against a month earlier | Lowest to highest | ± points against the federal average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 36.5 | −1.5 | 36.0 to 37.0 | +16.8 |
| AfD | 21.5 | +1.5 | 21.0 to 22.0 | −6.8 |
| Grüne | 15.0 | +2.0 | 15.0 to 15.0 | −0.1 |
| Freie Wähler | 9.5 | −2.5 | 9.0 to 10.0 | |
| SPD | 7.0 | +1.0 | 6.0 to 8.0 | −6.4 |
| Linke | 3.5 | +0.5 | 3.0 to 4.0 | −7.5 |
| FDP | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 to 2.0 | −2.2 |
| Other parties | 6.0 | +3.0 | 5.0 to 7.0 |
CSU is compared with the federal average of CDU/CSU.
What stands out
- CSU: 16.8 points above CDU/CSU's federal average of 20 October 2026 (19.7%).
- Linke: 7.5 points below the federal average of 20 October 2026 (11.0%).
- AfD: 6.8 points below the federal average of 20 October 2026 (28.3%).
How has support changed?
Which polls are in the average?
| Pollster | Published | Asked | People | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | FDP | Other parties | In average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimapfor Bayerischer Rundfunk, Telefon & Online | to | 1,207 | 36.0 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | Yes | ||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,011 | 37.0 | 22.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | Yes | |
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 38.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 38.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 38.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 38.0 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 39.0 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,003 | 39.0 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 40.0 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 40.0 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor Bayerischer Rundfunk, Telefon & Online | to | 1,177 | 39.0 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | |||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,006 | 39.0 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 37.0 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | ||
| GMSfor CSU, Telefon & Online | to | 1,005 | 40.0 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 38.0 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,017 | 39.0 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Forsafor Süddeutsche Zeitung, Telefonisch | to | 1,012 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,000 | 41.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,002 | 37.0 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,001 | 39.0 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,004 | 39.0 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,006 | 39.0 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,006 | 41.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,007 | 41.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,011 | 43.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognosefor Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Online | to | 1,000 | 42.0 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 12.5 | ||||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,001 | 42.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,008 | 44.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 43.0 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | ||||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,048 | 42.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | ||
| Forsafor Süddeutsche Zeitung, Telefonisch | to | 1,036 | 43.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | |||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefonisch | to | 1,023 | 41.0 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Civeyfor Augsburger Allgemeine, Online | to | 5,001 | 42.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | ||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,018 | 42.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor Bayerischer Rundfunk, Telefon & Online | to | 1,161 | 40.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | |||
| GMSfor SAT.1 Bayern, Telefon & Online | to | 1,002 | 41.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
The newest polls are shown; the earlier ones are in DAWUM's database.
Who ran the polls?
| Pollster | Polls | Latest | In the average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 3 | Yes | |
| GMS | 9 | Yes | |
| Civey | 25 | ||
| Forsa | 2 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 | ||
| INSA | 1 |
Other state parliaments
How is the average made?
The average takes the newest poll of each pollster published in the 30 days up to the date of the newest poll, counting only polls published after the last election. Each party's figure is the mean of its shares in the polls that report it, rounded to one decimal, and a party is listed when at least half of those polls report it. Every poll is used as DAWUM publishes it; no poll is weighted or adjusted. A poll is a snapshot of what a sample said when asked, not a forecast, and this page shows no seat projection. If DAWUM edits or withdraws a poll, this page follows.
No law in Germany stops the publication of opinion polls before an election. Only exit polls, which ask people who have already voted, may not be published before the polling stations close at 18:00 (Berlin time). Bundeswahlgesetz, section 32, read .
Time and source Polls to
Sources
- Daten von dawum.de (Open Database License (ODbL)) (source). Licence: Open Database License 1.0
- The database as DAWUM publishes it