Opinion polls for the Lower Saxony state election
What do the polls say about the Lower Saxony state election?
The newest poll, from INSA, puts SPD first at 26.0%.
- Polls to
What do the polls say?
As of , the newest poll for the Lower Saxony state election, from INSA, puts SPD at 26.0%, CDU at 22.0% and AfD at 21.0%. This page lists 13 polls published after the election of , each with its pollster and fieldwork dates.
- Germany
- Niedersächsischer Landtag
- 13 polls since the last election
- Last election
- Next: Germany 2027 Lower Saxony state election
The newest poll, from INSA, published 11 September 2026; asked 1 September 2026 to 8 September 2026.
| Party | % | ± points against the federal average |
|---|---|---|
| SPD | 26.0 | +13.4 |
| CDU | 22.0 | +1.2 |
| AfD | 21.0 | −6.8 |
| Grüne | 15.0 | +0.5 |
| Linke | 6.0 | −5.6 |
| FDP | 5.0 | +0.4 |
| BSW | 3.0 | −0.2 |
| Other parties | 2.0 |
CDU is compared with the federal average of CDU/CSU.
What stands out
- SPD: 13.4 points above the federal average of 11 September 2026 (12.6%).
- AfD: 6.8 points below the federal average of 11 September 2026 (27.8%).
- Linke: 5.6 points below the federal average of 11 September 2026 (11.6%).
How has support changed?
Which polls are in the average?
| Pollster | Published | Asked | People | SPD | CDU | AfD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | BSW | Other parties | In average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 26.0 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | Yes | |
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Allensbachfor Drei Quellen-Mediengruppe, Persönlich & Online | to | 1,064 | 26.0 | 27.0 | 21.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | |||
| Infratest dimapfor NDR, Telefon & Online | to | 1,156 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 25.0 | 30.0 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Allensbachfor Drei Quellen-Mediengruppe, Persönlich | to | 1,007 | 27.0 | 33.0 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | |||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 26.0 | 31.0 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor NDR, Telefon & Online | to | 1,159 | 25.0 | 32.0 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | ||||
| Allensbachfor Drei Quellen-Mediengruppe, Persönlich | to | 1,070 | 29.0 | 30.0 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | |||
| Infratest dimapfor NDR, Telefon & Online | to | 1,178 | 26.0 | 28.0 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | ||||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 27.0 | 29.0 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | |||
| Allensbachfor Drei Quellen-Mediengruppe, Persönlich | to | 1,101 | 32.0 | 29.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | |||
| Forsafor Niedersächsische Tageszeitungen, Online | to | 2,007 | 33.0 | 26.0 | 10.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 |
Who ran the polls?
| Pollster | Polls | Latest | In the average |
|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 5 | Yes | |
| Allensbach | 4 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 3 | ||
| Forsa | 1 |
Other state parliaments
How is the average made?
The average takes the newest poll of each pollster published in the 30 days up to the date of the newest poll, counting only polls published after the last election. Each party's figure is the mean of its shares in the polls that report it, rounded to one decimal, and a party is listed when at least half of those polls report it. Every poll is used as DAWUM publishes it; no poll is weighted or adjusted. A poll is a snapshot of what a sample said when asked, not a forecast, and this page shows no seat projection. If DAWUM edits or withdraws a poll, this page follows.
No law in Germany stops the publication of opinion polls before an election. Only exit polls, which ask people who have already voted, may not be published before the polling stations close at 18:00 (Berlin time). Bundeswahlgesetz, section 32, read .
Time and source Polls to
Sources
- Daten von dawum.de (Open Database License (ODbL)) (source). Licence: Open Database License 1.0
- The database as DAWUM publishes it