Opinion polls for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election
What do the polls say about the North Rhine-Westphalia state election?
The poll average puts CDU first at 27.5%.
- Polls to
What do the polls say?
As of , the average of the newest poll from each of 2 pollsters for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election puts CDU at 27.5%, AfD at 21.5% and Grüne at 17.0%. This page lists 27 polls published after the election of , each with its pollster and fieldwork dates.
- Germany
- Landtag von Nordrhein-Westfalen
- 27 polls since the last election
- Last election
- Next: Germany 2027 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
The average of the newest poll from each of 2 pollsters, published 23 September 2026 to 16 October 2026.
- CDU 27.5% Range 26.0 to 29.0
- AfD 21.5% Range 21.0 to 22.0
- Grüne 17.0% Range 16.0 to 18.0
- SPD 16.0% Range 14.0 to 18.0
- Linke 9.0% Range 8.0 to 10.0
- FDP 3.5% Range 3.0 to 4.0
- Other parties 5.5% Range 5.0 to 6.0
- Lowest to highest poll
- Average
| Party | % | Lowest to highest | ± points against the federal average |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDU | 27.5 | 26.0 to 29.0 | +7.3 |
| AfD | 21.5 | 21.0 to 22.0 | −6.4 |
| Grüne | 17.0 | 16.0 to 18.0 | +1.9 |
| SPD | 16.0 | 14.0 to 18.0 | +2.6 |
| Linke | 9.0 | 8.0 to 10.0 | −2.3 |
| FDP | 3.5 | 3.0 to 4.0 | −0.6 |
| Other parties | 5.5 | 5.0 to 6.0 |
CDU is compared with the federal average of CDU/CSU.
What stands out
- CDU: 7.3 points above CDU/CSU's federal average of 16 October 2026 (20.2%).
- AfD: 6.4 points below the federal average of 16 October 2026 (27.9%).
- SPD: 2.6 points above the federal average of 16 October 2026 (13.4%).
How has support changed?
Which polls are in the average?
| Pollster | Published | Asked | People | CDU | AfD | Grüne | SPD | Linke | FDP | Other parties | In average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 26.0 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Yes | |
| Forsafor Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger / Kölnische Rundschau, Telefonisch | to | 1,030 | 29.0 | 22.0 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | Yes | |
| Infratest dimapfor WDR-Westpol, Telefon & Online | to | 1,139 | 32.0 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 34.0 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Forsafor NRW-Tageszeitungen, Online | to | 1,531 | 32.0 | 20.0 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor WDR-Westpol, Telefon & Online | to | 1,164 | 35.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 36.0 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | ||
| INSAfor NIUS, Online | to | 1,000 | 35.0 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Forsafor NRW-Tageszeitungen, Online | to | 1,507 | 38.0 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor WDR-Westpol, Telefon & Online | to | 1,165 | 39.0 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Forsafor NRW-Tageszeitungen, Online | to | 1,508 | 41.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor WDR-Westpol, Telefon & Online | to | 1,167 | 40.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | |||
| Forsafor General-Anzeiger Bonn, Telefonisch | to | 1,060 | 40.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor WDR-Westpol, Telefon & Online | to | 1,181 | 38.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | |||
| Forsafor NRW-Tageszeitungen, Online | to | 1,502 | 37.0 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor WDR-Westpol, Telefon & Online | to | 1,161 | 35.0 | 14.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | |||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognosefor Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Online | to | 1,100 | 33.5 | 18.0 | 16.5 | 19.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor WDR-Westpol, Telefon & Online | to | 1,159 | 32.0 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Forsafor NRW-Tageszeitungen, Online | to | 1,506 | 37.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 36.0 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Forsafor FUNKE NRW Redaktionsgesellschaft, Online | to | 1,005 | 38.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Forsafor SAT.1 NRW, Telefonisch | to | 1,006 | 36.0 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognosefor Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Online | to | 1,400 | 31.0 | 12.5 | 19.0 | 24.5 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor WDR-Westpol, Telefon & Online | to | 1,185 | 32.0 | 9.0 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | |||
| Forsafor NRW-Tageszeitungen, Online | to | 1,511 | 36.0 | 9.0 | 20.0 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 1,000 | 36.0 | 5.0 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognosefor Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Online | to | 1,040 | 37.0 | 6.0 | 15.5 | 27.5 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
Who ran the polls?
| Pollster | Polls | Latest | In the average |
|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 6 | Yes | |
| Forsa | 10 | Yes | |
| Infratest dimap | 8 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 3 |
Other state parliaments
How is the average made?
The average takes the newest poll of each pollster published in the 30 days up to the date of the newest poll, counting only polls published after the last election. Each party's figure is the mean of its shares in the polls that report it, rounded to one decimal, and a party is listed when at least half of those polls report it. Every poll is used as DAWUM publishes it; no poll is weighted or adjusted. A poll is a snapshot of what a sample said when asked, not a forecast, and this page shows no seat projection. If DAWUM edits or withdraws a poll, this page follows.
No law in Germany stops the publication of opinion polls before an election. Only exit polls, which ask people who have already voted, may not be published before the polling stations close at 18:00 (Berlin time). Bundeswahlgesetz, section 32, read .
Time and source Polls to
Sources
- Daten von dawum.de (Open Database License (ODbL)) (source). Licence: Open Database License 1.0
- The database as DAWUM publishes it