Opinion polls for the German federal election
How has opinion shifted since the 2025 election?
The poll average puts AfD first at 28.3%, 7.5 points above its 2025 result.
- Polls to
What do the polls say?
As of , the average of the newest poll from each of 10 pollsters for the German federal election puts AfD at 28.3%, CDU/CSU at 19.7% and Grüne at 15.1%. This page lists 405 polls published after the election of , each with its pollster and fieldwork dates.
- Germany
- Bundestag
- 405 polls since the last election
- Last election
- Next: Germany 2029 federal election
The average of the newest poll from each of 10 pollsters, published 24 September 2026 to 20 October 2026.
- AfD 28.3% Range 27.0 to 30.0 +7.5 Last election 20.8%
- CDU/CSU 19.7% Range 18.0 to 23.0 −8.8 Last election 28.5%
- Grüne 15.1% Range 14.0 to 17.0 +3.5 Last election 11.6%
- SPD 13.4% Range 12.0 to 15.0 −3.0 Last election 16.4%
- Linke 11.0% Range 10.0 to 12.0 +2.2 Last election 8.8%
- FDP 4.2% Range 3.0 to 5.0 −0.1 Last election 4.3%
- BSW 3.3% Range 3.0 to 4.0 −1.7 Last election 5.0%
- Other parties 6.3% Range 4.0 to 9.0 No result
- Lowest to highest poll
- Average
- Result of the 2025 election
- Points gained or lost since the 2025 election
Daten von dawum.de (Open Database License (ODbL))
| Party | % | ± points against a month earlier | Lowest to highest | Last election % | ± points since the election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 28.3 | +0.3 | 27.0 to 30.0 | 20.8 | +7.5 |
| CDU/CSU | 19.7 | −0.2 | 18.0 to 23.0 | 28.5 | −8.8 |
| Grüne | 15.1 | −0.2 | 14.0 to 17.0 | 11.6 | +3.5 |
| SPD | 13.4 | +0.8 | 12.0 to 15.0 | 16.4 | −3.0 |
| Linke | 11.0 | −0.6 | 10.0 to 12.0 | 8.8 | +2.2 |
| FDP | 4.2 | −0.3 | 3.0 to 5.0 | 4.3 | −0.1 |
| BSW | 3.3 | 0.0 | 3.0 to 4.0 | 5.0 | −1.7 |
| Other parties | 6.3 | +1.2 | 4.0 to 9.0 |
The last election column is the result of Germany 2025 federal election.
What stands out
- AfD: the highest average in our polls, which begin in January 2017.
- CDU/CSU: the lowest average in our polls, which begin in January 2017.
- Grüne: the highest average since May 2023.
How has support changed?
Daten von dawum.de (Open Database License (ODbL))
The average at the end of each quarter
| Day | Linke | BSW | SPD | Grüne | FDP | CDU/CSU | AfD | Other parties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8 | 0.0 | 31.9 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 33.2 | 9.3 | 4.4 | |
| 8.8 | 0.0 | 24.2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 38.9 | 7.8 | 4.2 | |
| 10.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 32.5 | 12.0 | 3.5 | |
| 9.6 | 0.0 | 20.8 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 32.7 | 12.3 | 4.3 | |
| 10.6 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 33.0 | 13.5 | 4.2 | |
| 10.0 | 0.0 | 18.5 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 31.1 | 14.8 | 4.3 | |
| 10.2 | 0.0 | 16.9 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 28.1 | 16.7 | 4.1 | |
| 8.9 | 0.0 | 14.9 | 19.2 | 8.4 | 29.5 | 14.3 | 4.6 | |
| 8.6 | 0.0 | 16.6 | 18.4 | 9.1 | 29.6 | 12.5 | 5.1 | |
| 7.8 | 0.0 | 12.9 | 25.3 | 8.2 | 26.7 | 12.5 | 6.5 | |
| 7.8 | 0.0 | 14.4 | 22.9 | 7.3 | 27.2 | 14.0 | 6.6 | |
| 8.6 | 0.0 | 13.8 | 21.3 | 8.3 | 27.4 | 14.5 | 6.3 | |
| 8.5 | 0.0 | 15.7 | 20.6 | 6.3 | 31.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | |
| 7.8 | 0.0 | 15.3 | 17.9 | 5.6 | 37.7 | 10.1 | 5.6 | |
| 7.6 | 0.0 | 15.9 | 19.2 | 5.6 | 35.9 | 10.4 | 5.4 | |
| 7.8 | 0.0 | 16.1 | 18.8 | 6.3 | 36.0 | 9.7 | 5.4 | |
| 7.6 | 0.0 | 16.5 | 21.9 | 9.6 | 27.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | |
| 7.1 | 0.0 | 15.7 | 20.5 | 11.4 | 28.8 | 10.0 | 6.2 | |
| 5.0 | 0.0 | 27.2 | 15.6 | 11.3 | 22.7 | 10.5 | 7.6 | |
| 5.1 | 0.0 | 25.2 | 17.2 | 9.6 | 25.3 | 10.0 | 7.4 | |
| 4.4 | 0.0 | 20.9 | 22.2 | 7.8 | 26.9 | 10.4 | 7.6 | |
| 5.2 | 0.0 | 18.5 | 20.1 | 7.2 | 27.7 | 13.6 | 7.7 | |
| 4.8 | 0.0 | 19.6 | 18.7 | 6.9 | 28.0 | 13.8 | 8.3 | |
| 4.8 | 0.0 | 19.8 | 16.7 | 6.9 | 28.6 | 15.0 | 8.2 | |
| 4.6 | 0.0 | 18.9 | 14.6 | 6.7 | 27.5 | 19.4 | 8.1 | |
| 4.7 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 14.5 | 6.5 | 27.0 | 21.6 | 8.0 | |
| 3.6 | 0.0 | 14.8 | 13.9 | 5.1 | 31.4 | 21.6 | 10.6 | |
| 3.2 | 6.2 | 16.1 | 13.8 | 4.6 | 30.1 | 17.8 | 7.4 | |
| 3.0 | 7.4 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 30.4 | 16.9 | 10.9 | |
| 3.1 | 8.2 | 14.8 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 32.4 | 17.6 | 8.7 | |
| 3.3 | 5.8 | 16.2 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 31.7 | 18.6 | 7.3 | |
| 9.8 | 4.3 | 15.4 | 12.1 | 3.4 | 27.5 | 22.3 | 5.0 | |
| 9.7 | 4.1 | 15.2 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 28.1 | 23.1 | 4.9 | |
| 10.5 | 3.9 | 14.9 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 25.8 | 25.5 | 5.0 | |
| 10.3 | 3.8 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 25.4 | 25.6 | 5.7 | |
| 10.1 | 3.2 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 3.3 | 26.3 | 24.4 | 6.7 | |
| 11.0 | 3.1 | 12.6 | 13.9 | 4.5 | 22.5 | 27.6 | 5.5 | |
| 11.4 | 3.5 | 13.2 | 14.8 | 4.3 | 20.1 | 28.0 | 5.8 | |
| 11.0 | 3.3 | 13.4 | 15.1 | 4.2 | 19.7 | 28.3 | 6.3 |
AfD 28.3%CDU/CSU 19.7%Grüne 15.1%SPD 13.4%Linke 11.0%FDP 4.2%
Daten von dawum.de (Open Database License (ODbL))
The chart scales each day's shares to add up to 100%. The averages themselves add up to between 98.1% and 103.4%; the table shows them as they are.
The average starts again after each election, from the first polls published after polling day, so the bands break at the election marks.
Which polls are in the average?
| Pollster | Published | Asked | People | AfD | CDU/CSU | Grüne | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | Other parties | In average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pollytixfor pollytix, Online | to | 1,300 | 29.0 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | Yes | |
| Forsafor RTL / n-tv, Telefonisch | to | 2,502 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | Yes | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 2,002 | 30.0 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | Yes | |
| YouGovfor YouGov, Online | to | 1,773 | 28.0 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | Yes | |
| GMSfor GMS, Telefon & Online | to | 1,012 | 30.0 | 19.0 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | Yes | |
| INSAfor BILD am Sonntag, Telefon & Online | to | 1,206 | 29.0 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 2,006 | 30.0 | 18.5 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.0 | ||
| Forsafor RTL / n-tv, Telefonisch | to | 1,502 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | |||
| INSAfor BILD am Sonntag, Telefon & Online | to | 1,207 | 30.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlenfor ZDF-Politbarometer, Telefon & Online | to | 1,311 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | Yes | ||
| Ipsosfor DER SPIEGEL, Online | to | 2,002 | 28.0 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | Yes | |
| Forsafor RTL / n-tv, Telefonisch | to | 2,502 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | |||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 2,002 | 30.5 | 17.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | ||
| INSAfor BILD am Sonntag, Telefon & Online | to | 1,202 | 30.0 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor ARD-Tagesthemen, Telefon & Online | to | 1,303 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | Yes | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 2,001 | 29.5 | 19.0 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | ||
| Forsafor RTL / n-tv, Telefonisch | to | 2,501 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD am Sonntag, Telefon & Online | to | 1,203 | 29.0 | 19.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlenfor ZDF-Politbarometer, Telefon & Online | to | 1,346 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | |||
| Verian (Emnid)for FOCUS, Telefonisch | to | 1,464 | 28.0 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | Yes | |
| Allensbachfor Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Persönlich | to | 1,051 | 28.0 | 23.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | Yes | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 2,004 | 29.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | ||
| Forsafor RTL / n-tv, Telefonisch | to | 2,504 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD am Sonntag, Telefon & Online | to | 1,202 | 29.0 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | ||
| pollytixfor Campact, Online | to | 3,113 | 27.0 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 2,006 | 29.0 | 19.5 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 | ||
| Forsafor RTL / n-tv, Telefonisch | to | 2,502 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ||
| YouGovfor YouGov, Online | to | 1,787 | 29.0 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | ||
| GMSfor GMS, Telefon & Online | to | 1,009 | 30.0 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD am Sonntag, Telefon & Online | to | 1,203 | 29.0 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 2,010 | 29.0 | 19.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 6.5 | ||
| Forsafor RTL / n-tv, Telefonisch | to | 2,502 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | ||
| pollytixfor pollytix, Online | to | 3,023 | 29.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD am Sonntag, Telefon & Online | to | 1,206 | 28.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Infratest dimapfor ARD-Tagesthemen, Telefon & Online | to | 1,319 | 27.0 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | |||
| Ipsosfor DER SPIEGEL, Online | to | 2,105 | 27.0 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ||
| INSAfor BILD, Online | to | 2,002 | 29.0 | 20.5 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 | ||
| Forsafor RTL / n-tv, Telefonisch | to | 2,504 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | |||
| INSAfor BILD am Sonntag, Telefon & Online | to | 1,200 | 29.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Verian (Emnid)for FOCUS, Telefonisch | to | 1,451 | 28.0 | 20.0 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 |
The newest polls are shown; the earlier ones are in DAWUM's database.
Who ran the polls?
| Pollster | Polls | Latest | In the average |
|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 170 | Yes | |
| Forsa | 84 | Yes | |
| YouGov | 20 | Yes | |
| pollytix | 10 | Yes | |
| GMS | 11 | Yes | |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 30 | Yes | |
| Ipsos | 20 | Yes | |
| Infratest dimap | 20 | Yes | |
| Verian (Emnid) | 20 | Yes | |
| Allensbach | 19 | Yes | |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 |
What do the state polls say?
| State | Latest poll | Pollster | Largest party | Polls since the election |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baden-WürttembergLandtag von Baden-Württemberg | Infratest dimap | Grüne 30.0 | 2 | |
| BavariaBayerischer LandtagGermany 2028 Bavaria state election | Infratest dimap | CSU 36.0 | 41 | |
| BerlinBerliner Abgeordnetenhaus | pollytix | Linke 25.0 | 1 | |
| BrandenburgBrandenburgischer LandtagGermany 2029 Brandenburg state election | INSA | AfD 40.0 | 9 | |
| BremenBremische BürgerschaftGermany 2027 Bremen state election | INSA | CDU 21.0 | 3 | |
| HamburgHamburgische Bürgerschaft | Trend Research Hamburg | SPD 29.0 | 3 | |
| HesseHessischer LandtagGermany 2028 Hesse state election | INSA | CDU 30.0 | 10 | |
| Lower SaxonyNiedersächsischer LandtagGermany 2027 Lower Saxony state election | INSA | SPD 26.0 | 13 | |
| Mecklenburg-VorpommernLandtag von Mecklenburg-VorpommernNo poll since the election of 20 September 2026. | 0 | |||
| North Rhine-WestphaliaLandtag von Nordrhein-WestfalenGermany 2027 North Rhine-Westphalia state election | INSA | CDU 26.0 | 27 | |
| Rhineland-PalatinateLandtag von Rheinland-Pfalz | Infratest dimap | CDU 28.0 | 1 | |
| SaarlandSaarländischer LandtagGermany 2027 Saarland state election | Infratest dimap | SPD 27.0 | 8 | |
| SaxonySächsischer LandtagGermany 2029 Saxony state election | INSA | AfD 42.0 | 7 | |
| Saxony-AnhaltLandtag von Sachsen-AnhaltNo poll since the election of 6 September 2026. | 0 | |||
| Schleswig-HolsteinLandtag von Schleswig-HolsteinGermany 2027 Schleswig-Holstein state election | INSA | CDU 27.0 | 9 | |
| ThuringiaThüringischer LandtagGermany 2029 Thuringia state election | INSA | AfD 40.0 | 9 |
A state gets its own page once enough polls from at least two pollsters have been published since its last election and the newest is under a year old.
How is the average made?
The average takes the newest poll of each pollster published in the 30 days up to the date of the newest poll, counting only polls published after the last election. Each party's figure is the mean of its shares in the polls that report it, rounded to one decimal, and a party is listed when at least half of those polls report it. Every poll is used as DAWUM publishes it; no poll is weighted or adjusted. A poll is a snapshot of what a sample said when asked, not a forecast, and this page shows no seat projection. If DAWUM edits or withdraws a poll, this page follows.
No law in Germany stops the publication of opinion polls before an election. Only exit polls, which ask people who have already voted, may not be published before the polling stations close at 18:00 (Berlin time). Bundeswahlgesetz, section 32, read .
Time and source Polls to
Sources
- Daten von dawum.de (Open Database License (ODbL)) (source). Licence: Open Database License 1.0
- The database as DAWUM publishes it
- Die Bundeswahlleiterin, Wiesbaden (source). Licence: Data licence Germany, attribution, version 2.0
- Die Bundeswahlleiterin, Wiesbaden; Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) (source). Licence: Data licence Germany, attribution, version 2.0